← CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.7%
avg ELO -9.9 per match
expected value
34.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1107
· median 1107
· range 1107–1107
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1191
Q3 1401
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
