Fire SlimesTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck PTM Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Water Fractal | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vampiric Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghastly Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |