Water FractalTier 1
at JWW/Maindeck PTM Regional
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-5-1
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1413
· range 1278–1513
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1130
Q3 1331
1689
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 |
| Fire Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
