Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck PTM Regional
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1080
· median 1080
· range 1080–1080
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1130
Q3 1331
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Wind Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
