Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at JWW/Maindeck PTM Regional
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-0-2
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1590
· median 1590
· range 1590–1590
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1130
Q3 1331
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
