← Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |