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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.9% | 11 | 2-5-4 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.0% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 31.9% | -10.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.2% | +0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |