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Water GenbuTier 2
at Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
decks
4
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-12-2
overall winrate
51.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1402
· range 1269–1467
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1176
Q3 1400
1668
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 68.1% | +10.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -15.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
