← Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
Water AlliesTier 2
at Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1321
· range 1297–1345
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1176
Q3 1400
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
