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Fire Umbra CielTier 3
at Gamersshop Gaming Store Regionals PTM (5th Floor)
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
1-7-3
overall winrate
22.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.7%
avg ELO -7.5 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1138–1289
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1176
Q3 1400
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
