EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fun4 PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 8.3% | 12 | 83.3% | 71.1% | 62.6% | 59.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.2% | 8 | 68.8% | 48.8% | 57.8% | 52.3% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.2% | 7 | 64.3% | 53.7% | 55.7% | 52.7% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.2% | 8 | 68.8% | 59.5% | 55.3% | 55.6% | 1306 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 4 | 16.7% | 22 | 52.3% | 41.8% | 52.8% | 49.5% | 1304 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 12.5% | 16 | 62.5% | 65.0% | 50.7% | 53.7% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1330 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.2% | 47.5% | 50.3% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 45.0% | 42.5% | 47.4% | 46.2% | 1332 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 40.3% | 46.7% | 44.7% | 1293 | — |
| 11 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.6% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 1271 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 8.3% | 9 | 33.3% | 40.9% | 46.3% | 46.9% | 1262 | — |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.0% | 45.9% | 49.0% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 52.6% | 44.4% | 53.4% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Chess | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 52.6% | 44.4% | 53.4% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 52.6% | 44.4% | 53.4% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 17.2% | 38.0% | 35.5% | 1214 | ↓ low |