EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GOAT PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 5 | 20.0% | 21 | 81.0% | 62.3% | 59.0% | 53.9% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 12.0% | 12 | 58.3% | 55.9% | 54.8% | 55.6% | 1314 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.4% | 49.5% | 1316 | — |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.7% | 49.3% | 45.5% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.1% | 48.6% | 50.7% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 47.3% | 49.4% | 1261 | — |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 46.7% | 48.0% | 1243 | — |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 8.0% | 9 | 55.6% | 59.9% | 46.6% | 50.1% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 8.0% | 8 | 50.0% | 43.5% | 45.5% | 44.6% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 44.4% | 46.6% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.7% | 42.0% | 45.8% | 1113 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.3% | 42.0% | 45.9% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.9% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 949 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Allies | 2 | 8.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 36.7% | 42.0% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 33.3% | 42.1% | 1162 | ↓ low |