← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
decks
3
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
12-9-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.7%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1357
· median 1323
· range 1241–1508
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1195
Q3 1418
1678
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 27.9% | -12.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
