← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Wind Astra ClericTier 2
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
decks
7
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
14-23-4
overall winrate
39.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1327
· range 1134–1536
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1195
Q3 1418
1678
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.7% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.5% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Topsy Decree, Lost Providence. Losers more often ran: Backup Charger, Gentle Respite, Turbo Charge.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Lost Providence
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Gentle Respite
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Orchestrated Seizure
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Humpty Dumpty, Fate's Fall
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Horticounter
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Astral Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Humpty Dumpty, Fate's Fall | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dawn's Reversal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astromech Attendant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Horticounter | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stellaria Shower | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ravaging Tempest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orbiting Cosmos | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tend the Land | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lunar Conduit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Barrier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunar Seer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mirrorbound Covenant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hide in Bush | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |