← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.7% | -5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |