← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.7% | -14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 57.6% | +4.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |