Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	13	13.8%	44-29-6	59.5%	55.7%	55.4%	54.3%	1329	—
2		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 2	8	8.5%	20-23-8	47.1%	46.0%	47.9%	47.5%	1327	—
3		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	7	7.4%	14-23-4	39.0%	41.7%	45.6%	46.9%	1310	—
4		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	6	6.4%	18-15-2	54.3%	56.0%	50.1%	50.6%	1271	—
5		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	6	6.4%	12-16-3	43.5%	41.9%	45.9%	45.8%	1280	—
6		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	5	5.3%	21-11-2	64.7%	51.6%	53.1%	50.1%	1499	↑ top
7		Water Genbu	Tier 1	5	5.3%	18-11-3	60.9%	57.2%	53.0%	52.0%	1413	↑ top
8		Water Fractal	Tier 1	4	4.3%	16-10-4	60.0%	52.1%	51.5%	49.4%	1465	↑ top
9		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	3	3.2%	12-9-0	57.1%	58.7%	48.8%	50.0%	1357	—
10		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	3.2%	6-12-1	34.2%	39.5%	43.1%	44.7%	1216	↓ low
11		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	3	3.2%	11-8-0	57.9%	54.8%	48.7%	49.2%	1315	—
12		Water Tera Mage	Tier 2	3	3.2%	12-10-2	54.2%	54.8%	48.3%	50.5%	1201	↓ low
13		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	2	2.1%	7-6-2	53.3%	47.5%	48.0%	46.6%	1391	↑ top
14		Horse and Taxes	Tier 2	2	2.1%	9-4-1	67.9%	70.6%	50.5%	53.1%	1303	—
15		Wind Allies	Tier 2	2	2.1%	9-5-0	64.3%	71.3%	55.5%	59.7%	1214	↓ low
16		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	2	2.1%	8-6-0	57.1%	67.1%	53.5%	57.6%	1185	↓ low
17		Arcane	Tier 2	1	1.1%	4-3-0	57.1%	58.0%	54.9%	55.6%	1233	↓ low
18		Fire Byakko	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	42.3%	48.2%	47.4%	1345	—
19		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	43.5%	52.2%	50.7%	1371	—
20		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	1.1%	4-3-0	57.1%	46.1%	51.3%	49.6%	1616	↑ top
21		Fire Silvie	Tier 3	1	1.1%	3-3-1	50.0%	59.6%	47.9%	51.2%	1228	↓ low
22		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	46.9%	50.0%	49.8%	1393	↑ top
23		Fire Umbra Alice	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-5-3	18.8%	34.7%	45.2%	45.3%	1272	—
24		Slimes	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-2-2	57.1%	57.6%	51.7%	55.0%	1224	↓ low
25		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-5-0	16.7%	36.2%	41.1%	45.1%	1055	↓ low
26		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	28.5%	49.5%	43.3%	1561	↑ top
27		Water Crux Merlin	Tier 3	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	54.8%	47.0%	50.6%	1257	—
28		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-5-0	0.0%	30.3%	35.2%	40.9%	1008	↓ low
29		Wind Alice	Tier 3	1	1.1%	2-3-2	42.9%	41.4%	44.4%	44.3%	1317	—
30		Wind Byakko	Tier 2	1	1.1%	4-3-0	57.1%	52.1%	48.2%	48.3%	1263	—
31		Wind Chess	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-4-0	0.0%	32.3%	40.0%	41.5%	1086	↓ low
32		Wind Crux Assassin	Tier 2	1	1.1%	2-5-0	28.6%	44.1%	48.4%	49.9%	1193	↓ low
33		Wind Neos	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-3-2	50.0%	49.8%	50.5%	50.9%	1213	↓ low
34		Wind Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	39.9%	48.6%	47.4%	1343	—
35		Wind Razorgale	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-5-1	21.4%	34.3%	40.9%	42.2%	1086	↓ low
36		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	1	1.1%	2-5-0	28.6%	44.1%	48.4%	49.9%	1193	↓ low
37		Wind Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.1%	0-4-0	0.0%	27.9%	34.6%	35.6%	1195	↓ low
38		Wind Tera Diao Chan	Tier 3	1	1.1%	1-4-1	25.0%	47.5%	41.5%	46.2%	1042	↓ low
39		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	1.1%	3-4-0	42.9%	50.4%	52.0%	53.1%	1192	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Aetherwing 13 decks · 13.8%
• Wind Seiryuu 8 decks · 8.5%
• Wind Astra Cleric 7 decks · 7.4%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 6 decks · 6.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 6 decks · 6.4%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 5 decks · 5.3%
• Water Genbu 5 decks · 5.3%
• Water Fractal 4 decks · 4.3%
• Fire Aetherwing 3 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Crux Mage 3 decks · 3.2%
• Water Tera Mage 3 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Oblation 2 decks · 2.1%
• Horse and Taxes 2 decks · 2.1%
• Wind Allies 2 decks · 2.1%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 2 decks · 2.1%
• Arcane 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Byakko 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Silvie 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 1.1%
• Fire Umbra Alice 1 deck · 1.1%
• Slimes 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.1%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Alice 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Byakko 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Chess 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Crux Assassin 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Neos 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Slimes 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Tera Diao Chan 1 deck · 1.1%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.1%