← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Water GenbuTier 1
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |