Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Apex PTM SC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jubjub Bird, Mimsy Ghast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |