Water GenbuTier 2
at Apex PTM SC
decks
3
(8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-7-1
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1233
· median 1153
· range 1142–1403
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1230
Q3 1401
1633
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
