Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Apex PTM SC
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Lapse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shattered Hope | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |