Water FractalTier 1
at Apex PTM SC
decks
2
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1382
· median 1382
· range 1304–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1230
Q3 1401
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.3% | -3.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
