Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Apex PTM SC
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +18.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Golden Gambit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Golden Pawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |