← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 83.3% | 53.2% | 59.1% | 51.2% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 68.1% | 55.4% | 56.8% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 5.4% | 16 | 56.2% | 60.4% | 55.3% | 57.0% | 1294 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 3.6% | 12 | 62.5% | 67.2% | 53.7% | 56.1% | 1260 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 32.2% | 53.6% | 47.7% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 10.7% | 28 | 53.6% | 50.3% | 52.0% | 51.0% | 1300 | — |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 3.6% | 12 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 51.6% | 52.1% | 1282 | — |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 2 | 3.6% | 12 | 62.5% | 39.9% | 51.3% | 43.0% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 1.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.0% | 50.8% | 50.8% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 3.6% | 11 | 54.5% | 60.4% | 50.7% | 52.9% | 1276 | — |
| 11 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.1% | 50.6% | 48.1% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 5 | 8.9% | 22 | 45.5% | 45.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 8.9% | 25 | 52.0% | 53.8% | 49.7% | 51.6% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.9% | 49.6% | 51.4% | 1264 | — |
| 15 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 54.5% | 49.2% | 53.5% | 1076 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.2% | 48.9% | 45.0% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 48.7% | 49.7% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Fractal | 6 | 10.7% | 30 | 51.7% | 54.0% | 48.5% | 48.5% | 1278 | — |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 7.1% | 18 | 50.0% | 43.1% | 48.0% | 44.8% | 1272 | — |
| 20 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 58.5% | 46.7% | 50.3% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Arcane | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.2% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1238 | — |
| 22 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 16.7% | 31.7% | 46.3% | 46.9% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 37.6% | 46.2% | 46.5% | 1269 | — |
| 24 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 3.6% | 12 | 45.8% | 42.6% | 45.2% | 45.7% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 3.6% | 10 | 30.0% | 40.6% | 43.9% | 45.8% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.8% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.7% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 1074 | ↓ low |