EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Outpost Ghent | Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.1% | 13 | 76.9% | 74.3% | 57.5% | 59.1% | 1323 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.1% | 16 | 71.9% | 52.2% | 55.8% | 49.9% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.9% | 54.6% | 54.8% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 53.4% | 53.3% | 51.1% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.6% | 52.5% | 52.2% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.1% | 16 | 59.4% | 65.3% | 52.2% | 55.7% | 1304 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.7% | 50.8% | 49.6% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.1% | 21 | 52.4% | 40.7% | 49.6% | 46.1% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 59.1% | 46.4% | 49.6% | 47.7% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.1% | 10 | 60.0% | 56.3% | 48.3% | 49.0% | 1331 | — |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 9.1% | 14 | 39.3% | 46.8% | 47.8% | 50.3% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 42.4% | 47.5% | 44.4% | 1242 | — |
| 14 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.3% | 47.5% | 50.2% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 56.0% | 47.3% | 52.4% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 51.9% | 45.8% | 50.3% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 3.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.3% | 45.7% | 48.8% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 3.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.3% | 45.7% | 48.8% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.2% | 40.8% | 42.6% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Slimes | 2 | 6.1% | 12 | 4.2% | 23.7% | 35.8% | 39.6% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.5% | 34.7% | 40.1% | 1170 | ↓ low |