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Fire SuitedTier 2
at Plenty of Games Phantom Monarchs Regionals
decks
2
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-6-0
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1152
· median 1152
· range 1059–1245
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1161
Q3 1361
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
