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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Plenty of Games Phantom Monarchs Regionals
decks
4
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
12-9-1
overall winrate
56.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1325
· range 1235–1509
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1161
Q3 1361
1689
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
