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Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Plenty of Games Phantom Monarchs Regionals
decks
1
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-0-1
overall winrate
91.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.1%
avg ELO +8.0 per match
expected value
59.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1404
· median 1404
· range 1404–1404
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1161
Q3 1361
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
