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Water FractalTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 43.8% | -3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |