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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Plenty of Games Phantom Monarchs Regionals
decks
3
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-9-1
overall winrate
40.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1207
· median 1232
· range 1063–1327
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1161
Q3 1361
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.8% | +16.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.8% | -6.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
