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Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at Plenty of Games Phantom Monarchs Regionals
decks
1
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1197
· median 1197
· range 1197–1197
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1161
Q3 1361
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
