Fire AggroTier 2

at Whimsy PTM Regionals

decks

10 (11.9% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

49 17-26-6

overall winrate

40.8%

ELO-adjusted winrate

43.3% avg ELO -2.3 per match

expected value

46.6% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

47.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↓ low

mean ELO 1216 · median 1220 · range 1002–1496 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)

936 Q1 1175 Q3 1402 1668

10% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike	9.5%	6	2-2-2	50.0%	50.0%	55.0%	+2.7
Water Fractal	7.1%	4	1-2-1	37.5%	43.8%	42.9%	-4.6
Wind Seiryuu	7.1%	5	1-3-1	30.0%	38.9%	45.4%	-2.7
Fire Slimes	4.8%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.8%	+1.7
Water Genbu	4.8%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	62.1%	+11.6
Wind Wakeup Combo	4.8%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	34.6%	-14.8
Fire Crux Mage	3.6%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	40.8%	-8.8
Wind Allies	3.6%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	44.2%	-5.6
Wind Astra Cleric	3.6%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	52.4%	+1.8
Fire Aetherwing	2.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Lorraine	2.4%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	37.8%	-11.7
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.4%	+10.2
Fire Luxem Assassin	2.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	47.8%	-3.5
Fire Suzaku	2.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	37.9%	-19.3
Water Astra Ranger	2.4%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	55.8%	+5.6
Water Tera Mage	2.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	2.4%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Merlin	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Seiryuu	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Umbra Guardian	1.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.5%	+10.4
Slimes	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Aetherwing	1.2%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	55.7%	+9.1
Water Allies	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	45.5%	-7.1
Water Crux Merlin	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Neos	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	39.5%	-16.7
Water Overlord	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Ravishing Mill	1.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.1%	+11.4
Water Tera Tamer	1.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	41.8%	-7.9
Water Umbra Alice	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Crux Mage	1.2%	2	0-1-1	25.0%	41.7%	45.2%	-4.6
Wind Crux Merlin	1.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	43.3%	-6.4
Wind Dawn of Ashes	1.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.8%	-3.0
Wind Exia	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	44.2%	-9.3
Wind Exia Jin	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Razorgale	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Vanitas	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 10 from this event

The 10 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Impact Hammer, Veteran Blazebearer, Grande Aiguille. Losers more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Demolition, Reduce to Ash.

↑ Played more by winners

Impact Hammer

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.