Water GenbuTier 1
at Whimsy PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.0% | -11.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.0% | +21.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |