Water Tera MageTier 2
at Whimsy PTM Regionals
decks
2
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
4-5-5
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1189–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1175
Q3 1402
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.4% | -8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
