Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Whimsy PTM Regionals
decks
8
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
19-15-7
overall winrate
54.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1386
· range 1141–1512
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1175
Q3 1402
1668
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Nullifying Lantern, Dream Fairy. Losers more often ran: Abnegation, Topsy Decree, Tempest Downfall.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lost Providence
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Abnegation
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Topsy Decree
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Nocturne's Oblivion
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Blinding Orb
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |