Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Whimsy PTM Regionals
decks
6
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
19-14-5
overall winrate
56.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1473
· median 1477
· range 1232–1668
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1175
Q3 1402
1668
83% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.0% | -6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.6% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
