Water FractalTier 1
at Whimsy PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.1% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 62.0% | +6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 68.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.6% | +8.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.7 |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |