← The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 78.6% | 60.3% | 58.7% | 54.8% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.6% | 53.3% | 54.0% | 1275 | — |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 48.9% | 50.9% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 1268 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.4% | 46.7% | 45.3% | 1253 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.7% | 41.7% | 45.4% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1147 | ↓ low |