← Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Crux Lorraine 3 13.0% 14 71.4% 62.7% 57.8% 56.3% 1321
2 Wind Crux Mage 1 4.3% 5 80.0% 62.8% 57.2% 55.7% 1292
3 Water Allies 3 13.0% 13 61.5% 58.4% 53.3% 53.3% 1276
4 Fire Umbra Ranger 2 8.7% 10 60.0% 57.7% 51.6% 52.2% 1276
5 Wind Allies 2 8.7% 10 50.0% 48.4% 49.7% 49.5% 1222 ↓ low
6 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 13.0% 13 53.8% 46.2% 49.6% 47.7% 1451 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 4.3% 5 60.0% 60.2% 49.1% 51.3% 1237
8 Fire Aggro 1 4.3% 3 16.7% 37.6% 45.0% 45.6% 1126 ↓ low
9 Fire Erupting 2 8.7% 9 33.3% 43.2% 43.7% 45.8% 1198 ↓ low
10 Water Astra Cleric 2 8.7% 9 27.8% 36.9% 43.3% 44.3% 1286
11 Wind Tera Silvie 1 4.3% 5 20.0% 34.7% 42.5% 43.2% 1418 ↑ top
12 Fire Neos 1 4.3% 5 20.0% 41.3% 41.2% 45.5% 1126 ↓ low
13 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 4.3% 1 0.0% 42.9% 40.0% 42.9% 1064 ↓ low