← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.5% | 14 | 71.4% | 68.1% | 59.4% | 59.0% | 1295 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.4% | 11 | 59.1% | 52.8% | 55.9% | 52.4% | 1364 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 65.0% | 55.2% | 52.6% | 50.9% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.9% | 52.5% | 48.1% | 1351 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 50.7% | 52.0% | 1309 | — |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 43.2% | 50.6% | 46.7% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 7 | 21.9% | 24 | 52.1% | 52.4% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1352 | — |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | 51.9% | 1272 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 12.5% | 16 | 31.2% | 39.8% | 45.9% | 46.5% | 1245 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 4 | 12.5% | 17 | 44.1% | 44.1% | 43.8% | 44.9% | 1286 | — |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.2% | 41.0% | 38.4% | 1331 | — |
| 12 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | 1091 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.2% | 35.8% | 41.2% | 1179 | ↓ low |