← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
decks
2
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.5%
avg ELO +8.7 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1371
· median 1371
· range 1343–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1159
Q3 1385
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.5 |
| Water Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
