← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1158
· median 1158
· range 1158–1158
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1159
Q3 1385
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
