← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
Water FractalTier 1
at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
decks
4
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
12-7-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1287
· range 1167–1576
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1159
Q3 1385
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
