← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.3%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
57.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1390
· median 1390
· range 1390–1390
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1159
Q3 1385
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
