← Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Carta Magica PTM Regionals - Hosted @ New Realm Games, Vaughan
decks
5
(11.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
14-14-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1249
· range 1231–1463
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1159
Q3 1385
1750
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.4% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.6% | -4.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Alice | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
