EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 70.5% | 57.6% | 59.6% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.6% | 56.3% | 51.6% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.4% | 56.3% | 55.9% | 1231 | — |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 5.8% | 18 | 66.7% | 49.2% | 55.3% | 49.7% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 49.4% | 53.6% | 49.3% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 7.7% | 24 | 68.8% | 64.0% | 53.5% | 54.0% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 59.9% | 52.4% | 54.0% | 1292 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 9.6% | 29 | 46.6% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 53.4% | 1258 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 66.7% | 51.6% | 56.1% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 11.5% | 30 | 53.3% | 47.8% | 50.7% | 48.4% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 54.2% | 47.9% | 49.6% | 49.6% | 1317 | — |
| 12 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 62.7% | 49.4% | 53.2% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 49.3% | 49.6% | 1240 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 45.8% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 1260 | — |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 3.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 59.0% | 48.8% | 51.7% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 5.8% | 16 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 48.2% | 51.0% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Fractal | 4 | 7.7% | 20 | 50.0% | 43.6% | 47.8% | 46.1% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 56.2% | 47.2% | 50.6% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Genbu | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 45.8% | 49.5% | 47.1% | 48.4% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.4% | 46.2% | 46.6% | 1246 | — |
| 21 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 37.4% | 44.5% | 43.5% | 1324 | — |
| 22 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.2% | 44.0% | 44.5% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 41.8% | 41.9% | 45.5% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Wind Chess | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | 1002 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.6% | 39.2% | 40.9% | 1268 | — |