← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Fire AggroTier 2
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
5
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
17-18-0
overall winrate
48.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1290
· range 1184–1425
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.8% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.0% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
