← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
4
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
15-12-1
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1283
· range 1224–1525
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 59.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.3% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
