← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
5
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
13-14-6
overall winrate
48.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1197
· median 1212
· range 1070–1333
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.1% | -7.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
