← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Water GenbuTier 2
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 35.8% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.4% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |